Thursday, 15 May 2014

The Tories are falling

All around the world, Conservative parties have gained great ground but has the time of downfall about to come again?

In Canada, the Conservatives had a majority which was lost in 1993 Federal Election losing 154 seats. It never recovered until the 2006 Federal Election led by Stephen Harper with a minority government. It later had a majority in the 2011 Election. The 2015 Federal Election looked tight as polls showed that it was either Conservative or Liberal despite the New Democratic Party enjoying the Official Opposition. The Conservatives successfully launched a devastating campaign which threw the Liberals out of Official Opposition but it's latest campaign to keep the Liberals at bay did not work according to polls. 

In the United States, the Conservative Republicans were successful during the 80s with Ronald Reagan and again in 2000 with George W Bush. There were chances that the Republicans could throw make Obama a one term president. This made Mitt Romney overconfident to the point where he never wrote a concession speech. The Republicans lost the 2012 Presidential Election but they still believed that they have a good chance in 2016 after Barack Obama finishes his second term as President. 

New Zealand  swung to the right with John Key's National Party sweeping to power ending Helen Clark's nine years in office. Key did face challenges like pulling the country out of the recession, dealing with the Christchurch earthquake and asset sales. He won the 2011 General Election with Labour's result going down. Heading to the 2014 General Election, the polls were tight with the possibility of a Labour - Green Government after the election. This was due to National's partners in crisis giving Opposition parties an advantage. The 2014 budget showed a surplus giving National a boost for the 2014 election. 

Australia was completely controlled by Labor towards 2007 but was later retaken by the conservative Liberal/National Coalition. Since taking over eastern states, the State Coalition parties were in a tough fight with polls favouring Labor. In Western Australia, The Liberals managed to hold on to power along with extra seats. The Liberals were about to control every state but failed in South Australia despite having a higher share of votes. Labor retained power in South Australia with the support of the independents who had the balance of power. This happened in the 2010 Federal Election when the Julia Gillard's Labor returned to government with support of the crossbenchers. After the 2013 Federal Election, the polls were tipping towards Labor indicating that if an election were to be held tomorrow, Labor might win. 

The United Kingdom was controlled by New Labour during Tony Blair's time in office. The Conservatives lost their majority in a massive defeat in the 1997 General Election. After three General Elections, David Cameron was very close to winning the 2010 General Election but was short of a majority. It was possible to govern as a minority government but due to the crisis in Europe, the tough measures would not have been able to pass in order to protect the UK from a financial catastrophe. Both Labour and Conservatives knew of this and wanted to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives successfully formed a stable coalition with the Liberal Democrats in order to be in government and avoid an anti Tory majority in parliament. Over the years of the Coalition Government, Cameron went through tough times with polls showing that if an election were to be held tomorrow, Ed Miliband will win an outright majority. Cameron aimed to win a majority for the next election and was keen to avoid putting the Tories back to the old days of Opposition. The Conservatives in Scotland had little popularity with only one Westminister seat and the Scots choosing left wing parties like Labour and the Scottish National Party. There were speculation that the Scottish Conservatives might rise if Scotland voted for independence.